QB, Stanford
Height: 6’4″
Weight: 225 lbs
Class: Senior
Back in 2017, Davis Mills was a five-star recruit and the No. 1 quarterback in the class, ahead of players like Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones. He received over 30 offers coming out of high school, before committing to Stanford. He initially served as the backup for K.J. Costello, before taking over midway through the 2019 season. Whilst his college experience is limited, he offers an intriguing set of tools for an NFL quarterback.
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Strengths
It is easy to see why Mills was highly regarded as a high school recruit. He is an old-school pocket passer who showcases great processing skills. He does a great job of getting the ball out on time and his 2.42 second average time to throw ranked second behind only Trevor Lawrence. Mills is comfortable reading defenses and working through his progressions. Teams will also like his toughness in the pocket, and he is able to stand in under pressure and make big plays.
Mills is also one of the most accurate quarterbacks in this year’s class. He posted a 78.8 per cent adjusted completion rate in 2020, which ranked fifth amongst draft eligible quarterbacks. Whilst his box score numbers weren’t particularly impressive, he was hurt by drops. 11 per cent of his catchable passes were dropped in 2020, which ranks behind only Shane Buechele in the 2021 quarterback class. Mills also possesses prototypical arm strength, with the ability to make throws at every level of the field. His ball placement is excellent and he understands how to vary velocity to give his receivers a chance to make a play on the ball in contested catch situations.
One of the things working in Mills’ favour is his upside. He had limited experience as a starter in college, but he put together some impressive tape. His ability to read and process the game will translate well to the NFL and he has all of the tools to be a starting quarterback at the next level. Whilst he is far from the finished product, teams will want to take a chance on his potential.
Weaknesses
Whilst teams are going to chase Mills’ upside, his lack of tape is still a concern. He enters the draft with just ten starts to his name and just 491 college dropbacks. His arm talent speaks for itself, but the more nuanced aspects of his game are still lacking. He has shown the ability to progress through his reads, but there are times when he locks onto a receiver. He could also do a much better job of manipulating defenders with his eyes. There is a lot to like about his game, but there are still too many inexplicable throws on Mills’ tape.
The other big issue with Mills is his lack of mobility. He offers nothing outside of the pocket and is a below average athlete. Even within the pocket he can struggle at times when under pressure and doesn’t have the ability to slip away from pass rushers. He needs to have his feet set in order to make his throws and he could struggle if he lands in an offense without a solid offensive line.
Bottom Line
Mills has many of the things teams look for in a quarterback prospect. He is a quick decision maker, with accuracy and natural arm talent. That said, he lacks substantial starting experience and this shows up at times on tape. His lack of mobility will limit his appeal, but in the right system he has the tools to develop into a starting quarterback.
Big Board Rank: #94
Positional Rank: #7
