The AFC South looks set for plenty of change in 2021. The Jags will be hoping that Trevor Lawrence can revive the franchise’s fortunes, whilst the Texans and Colts look set to enter the season with new quarterbacks under center. The Titans are the only team looking to run it back with the same formula and will be hopeful of their third trip to the postseason in as many years. Here are my draft grades for each team.
Houston Texans
3.67 – QB Davis Mills, Stanford
3.89 – WR Nico Collins, Michigan
5.147 – TE Brevin Jordan, Miami
5.170 – LB Garrett Wallow, TCU
6.195 – IDL Roy Lopez, Arizona
Texans fans haven’t had much to cheer about over the last few months and that trend continued through the draft. The Laremy Tunsil trade still hampers their ability to rebuild the franchise through the draft and they were the only team without a pick in the first two rounds. They then went on to use their first pick on Stanford quarterback Davis Mills. This seemed to confirm that Deshaun Watson won’t play another down for the franchise and Mills could end up starting in 2021. He is a solid option, but it is a strange move from a team who will likely be picking inside the top five in 2022, with their pick of next year’s quarterback class.
After taking Mills they traded up to take Michigan wide receiver Nico Collins. Collins is a promising player and offers the ideal combination of size and athleticism. The fact that they had to part with three draft picks to get him seems a little steep though. There wasn’t much of note after this pick, with just three selections on day three. Brevin Jordan gives them depth at tight end, whilst Wallow and Lopez are likely special teams players at the next level.
Grade: D
Indianapolis Colts
1.21 – EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan
2.54 – EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt
4.127 – TE Kylen Granson, SMU
5.165 – S Shawn Davis, Florida
6.218 – QB Sam Ehlinger, Texas
7.229 – WR Michael Strachan, Charleston
7.248 – IOL Will Fries, Penn State
The Colts grabbed one of my favourite players in the draft in the first round. Kwity Paye is still a little raw as a pass rusher, but his combination of size and explosiveness make him a handful for offensive tackles. He led the draft class with a 25.8 per cent pass rush win rate and had 22 pressures on just 138 pass rushing snaps in 2020. Getting the best edge rusher in the class at No. 21 overall without having to trade up is about as good as it gets. The problem was that the rest of the Colts’ picks where nowhere near as impressive.
Dayo Odeyingbo in the second round is another edge with a rare combination of tools, but unlike Paye this never translated into dominance on the field. He is also coming off a torn ACL and taking him at No. 54 overall seems a little high. They then made five selections on day three and none of them ranked inside the top 200 on The Athletic’s Consensus Board. Ehlinger should be a solid backup, but none of the other picks look to offer much. They also failed to address their glaring need at offensive tackle.
Grade: C-
Jacksonville Jaguars
1.1 – QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
1.25 – RB Travis Etienne, Clemson
2.33 – CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia
2.45 – OT Walker Little, Stanford
3.65 – S Andre Cisco, Syracuse
4.106 – IDL Jay Tufele, USC
4.121 – EDGE Jordan Smith, UAB
5.145 – TE Luke Farrell, Ohio State
6.209 – WR Jalen Camp, Georgia Tech
This is a huge offseason for the Jaguars and in Trevor Lawrence they secured the best quarterback prospect in a decade. This was a no-brainer of a pick and he should immediately elevate a team that won just one game in 2020. You can see the logic behind pairing him with his college running back in Travis Etienne, but this felt like a poor pick from a value perspective, particularly with a number of quality tackles still on the board. Running back didn’t even seem like much of a need at all, with James Robinson rushing for over 1,000 yards as a rookie last year.
The Tyson Campbell pick at the top of the second round also felt like a bit of a reach, particularly with C.J. Henderson and Shaquill Griffin already entrenched as their boundary corners. With the exception of those two picks though there was a lot to like. Walker Little hasn’t played a tonne in recent years, but he has the traits to be a quality starter in the NFL. Andre Cisco is incredibly raw, but has uncoachable ball skills. Even getting Jordan Smith in the fourth was a savvy move. Smith has had his share of off-field issues, but he has been electric on the field, with 102 pressures over the last two seasons.
Grade: B+
Tennessee Titans
1.22 – CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
2.53 – OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State
3.92 – LB Monty Rice, Georgia
3.100 – CB Elijah Molden, Washington
4.109 – WR Dez Fitzpatrick, Louisville
4.135 – EDGE Rashad Weaver, Pittsburgh
6.205 – WR Racey McMath, LSU
6.215 – S Brady Breeze, Oregon
In 2019, the Titans took a chance on Jeffery Simmons in the first round after injury issues saw him slide down boards. That pick paid off and they will be hoping for the same result with Caleb Farley. Farley was my CB1 until news of his back surgery broke, so to get him this late in the first round could be a steal. He immediately upgrades a porous Tennessee secondary and has all of the tools to develop into a top tier NFL cornerback. His 2019 tape was outstanding and he gave up a passer rating of just 26.8 on 50 targets.
There was a lot to like about the rest of the Titans’ draft too. Their selections of Dillon Radunz and Elijah Molden were two of my favourite picks in the entire draft. Both players ranked inside the top 40 of my Big Board, yet they got Radunz at No. 53 and Molden way down at No. 100. Molden will be another great addition to a promising young cornerback group and should start right away in the slot. Rashad Weaver in the fourth round looks like excellent value too, though recent news about an assault charge could impact his NFL future.
Grade: A-
