This weekend looks like one of the best from a betting perspective. Whilst there are a still a few double digit spreads, there are a number of games that look to present real value. The Titans at +1.5 and the Cowboys at -1 stand out as my favourite bets of the weekend. Here are my picks for every game in Week 8.
2021 Against the spread record: 59-47-1
2021 Straight up record: 75-32
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-6)
Thursday night’s game might be the best of Week 8. The Cardinals are the NFL’s last unbeaten team, coming off a dominant 31-5 performance against the Texans last weekend. The Packers might not be undefeated, but they are on a six game winning streak and are vying for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The only reason this spread is so substantial is Green Bay’s injuries. They are already without a number of key names on defense and enter this one without Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. I feel like that will be too much for the Packers to overcome, but I still think they keep it within 6.5 points and beat the spread.
The pick: Packers +6
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Things change quickly in the NFL and no team embodies that more than the Carolina Panthers. After a 3-0 start they have lost four straight, including a dire 25-3 loss against the previously 1-5 New York Giants. This offense is falling apart before our eyes and Christian McCaffrey’s absence is clearly hitting them hard. Contrast this with their divisional rivals in Atlanta, whose offense is beginning to find its feet. Since Week 4 they rank sixth in EPA per dropback, with Matt Ryan throwing ten touchdowns and just one pick. The Panthers have to be better than they were last weekend, but I don’t think that will be enough to keep pace with Atlanta.
The pick: Falcons -3
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (+10.5)
I’m not sure many people would have expected the Bengals to be the AFC’s No. 1 seed entering Week 8, but that is the situation we find ourselves in. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are getting all of the headlines, but their defense has been legitimately impressive. They rank fifth in EPA per play this season after finishing 26th in 2020. I don’t see anyway in which Joe Flacco and the Jets get close to winning this one. Their defense is still a major liability, allowing 25+ points in each of their last five games and giving up 54 to the Patriots last weekend. I fully expect the Bengals to move to 6-2 and they should cover too.
The pick: Bengals -10.5
Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans (+14.5)
This is the second week in a row that the Rams have found themselves favoured by double digit points. Some early aggressiveness from Dan Campbell and the Lions stopped them from covering last week, but they still outscored Detroit 25-9 after the first quarter. The Texans may not be winless like the Lions, but they may well be a worse team. They have lost three of their last four games by 25+ points and have averaged just 8.3 points per game in that spell. I took the Cardinals as 18 point favourites over Houston last weekend and they covered. I expect the Rams to do the same.
The pick: Rams -14.5
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-14)
Nothing has gone to plan in Miami this season. Despite some good play from Tua Tagovailoa over the last two weeks they are 1-6 at the foot of the AFC East. The last thing this team needs right now is a game against a Bills team that may be the best in the NFL. Ahead of Week 8 their offense ranks sixth in EPA per play, whilst their defense leads the NFL in the same metric. I think it is almost inevitable that Miami fall to yet another defeat this weekend, but I’ve seen enough positives from Tua to think that he can keep this within the spread.
The pick: Dolphins +14
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (+3.5)
Things aren’t exactly going well in Philly. They enter Week 8 at 2-5 and continue to have issues moving the ball consistently on offense. Jalen Hurts has been nowhere near as effective as you would like and they currently rank 21st in EPA per play. Detroit on the other hand may be the league’s last winless team, but there is at least cause for optimism. Dan Campbell has brought the competitiveness and toughness that everyone expected, and he is showing an aggressive side to his in-game decision making. They don’t deserve to be 0-7 and I think this is the weekend where they break their losing streak.
The pick: Lions +3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
The last time these two teams met it was in the AFC wild card round and they combined for 85 points. With the way they are playing at the moment I’m not sure I see a repeat performance on the cards. I know the Browns were basically playing their backups last week, but I wasn’t entirely convinced by their performances against Denver. Baker Mayfield should return this weekend, but I’m not sure how much of an impact he’ll have as he’s still not at full fitness. I have a feeling this will be a close fought, low scoring game. In that scenario the Steelers keep it close and beat the spread.
The pick: Steelers +3.5
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (+3)
Rightly or wrongly, Kyle Shanahan seems to be on the hot seat in San Francisco. The 49ers have now lost four in a row and their normally reliable offense has disappeared. They managed just 280 yards against the Colts last weekend. Since Week 3 they rank 25th in EPA per play. That is bad, but not nearly as bad as Chicago. The Bears rank 31st in EPA per play over that same stretch and were handed a 38-3 loss by the Bucs last weekend. This is a must-win for both teams, but the 49ers should have enough to edge it. Don’t expect it to be pretty though.
The pick: 49ers -3
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
This is the Week 8 spread that makes the least sense to me. The Titans are fresh off a 27-3 win over the Chiefs, handing Patrick Mahomes the biggest defeat of his career. Just a week earlier, they got the better of the high-flying Bills in Buffalo. Whilst the Colts have looked much improved in recent weeks, their three wins this season have come against the Dolphins, Texans, and 49ers. Those three have combined for a 4-16 record. The one cause for concern from a Titans perspective is the fact that Indianapolis have the NFL’s best run defense. Still, I think they are a much better team and should win and beat the spread.
The pick: Titans +1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
This is another Week 8 matchup where both coaches are on the hot seat. Urban Meyer may have led Jacksonville to its first win since September 2020, but rumours about his return to college football just won’t go away. The injury to Russell Wilson has also put the spotlight on Pete Carroll in Seattle and the lack of surrounding talent on this roster. I don’t think either side will be up to much this season, but I think that without Russell Wilson the Seahawks are one of the very worst teams in the NFL. I always say you should take the bet when the best quarterback is the underdog, and I’ll follow that this weekend with Trevor Lawrence and the Jags.
The pick: Jaguars +3.5
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)
How you feel about this game will come down to how much weight you give to a team’s last performance. New England managed to put up 54 points last weekend, although it admittedly came against an abysmal Jets team. The Chargers on the other hand come into Week 8 out of their bye after a disastrous 34-6 loss to the Ravens. I’m not putting too much stock into either game and I expect things to level out this weekend. The Chargers are the better team and I can’t see New England keeping pace with that offense.
The pick: Chargers -4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (+4.5)
If you expected any sort of Super Bowl hangover for the Bucs this season you were wildly mistaken. The offense is flying and Tom Brady is playing some of the best football of his career. The only slight regression has been on defense and even then they rank seventh in EPA per play. This weekend they face a Saints team whose 4-2 record disguises some problems on offense. This is a team that beat Geno Smith and Seattle by just three points last week, scoring 13 points in the process. This should be another fairly comfortable win for Tampa Bay.
The pick: Buccaneers -4.5
Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos (-3)
Both of these teams are on the slide and will be desperate to halt their losing streaks. Denver couldn’t beat a depleted Browns team and scored just 14 points last weekend. They have now lost four on the bounce and scored more than 20 points in just one of those games. Washington were handed their fifth defeat of the season by Green Bay last week, but it was closer than the 24-10 scoreline would suggest. They were stopped twice in fourth and goal situations and also had an interception in the red zone. That kind of thing won’t happen again this weekend and they will keep this close. I think they could even get the upset and beat Denver.
The pick: Washington +3
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+1)
These two teams enter Week 8 with optimism after their bye week. Dallas are on a five game winning streak and their only loss this season came by just two points against the Bucs in the season opener. Their offense has been amongst the league’s best, with the only slight question mark being Dak Prescott nursing a calf injury. The Vikings might not have won five straight, but they did win back-to-back games before their bye. The difference is that those two wins came against Detroit and Carolina, two teams that are in the middle of a crisis. The Vikings also needed a last second field goal and overtime respectively. This spread seems far too narrow.
The pick: Cowboys -1
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
It says a lot about how Vegas views this Chiefs team that they entered the week as a double digit favourite after losing 27-3 and starting the season 3-4. This is even more of a surprise given that the Giants just beat the Panthers 25-3. Still, I like the Chiefs in this scenario. They still have one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses and rank fifth in EPA per play this season. Their turnover rate has been ridiculous and it is bound to regress at some point soon. I may regret this, but I feel like this could be a commanding victory for Mahomes and the Chiefs.
The pick: Chiefs -9.5