NFL Week 3 2021 – Picks Against the Spread

2021 is beginning to look like the year of the underdog as far as NFL betting goes. Nine teams beat the spread last week after 12 teams did in Week 1. Of the 32 games we have seen so far, we have also seen the underdog win outright on 13 occasions. Without any further ado, here are my picks for every game in Week 3.

2021 Against the spread record: 18-14
2021 Straight up record: 
18-14

Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (+8)

The Panthers have looked excellent through two games. Their offense seems to be finally coming together under Sam Darnold and the return of Christian McCaffrey has been a major boost. On defense they look much improved and currently lead the NFL in EPA allowed per play. Houston have also exceeded expectation and are 2-0 against the spread so far this season. I think this is where that run ends though. With Tyrod Taylor out they are set to start rookie Davis Mills. Mills looked awful under pressure last weekend and this Panthers front seven leads the NFL in pressures.

The pick: Panthers -8

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)

The Cardinals enter this game 2-0 and tied for the lead in the NFC West. Kyler Murray has looked exceptional, although it does feel like this offense is still too reliant on him creating outside of structure. As for the Jaguars, things haven’t got off to the start that many hoped for. Urban Meyer has already been linked with a return to college football, whilst Trevor Lawrence leads the NFL with five interceptions. I feel like they will improve at some point, but I’ve seen nothing to make me want to pick them against the spread.

The pick: Cardinals -7

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3)

I don’t think anyone expected much from the Falcons this season, but the scale of their struggles on offense is a surprise. Through two weeks they rank 31st in EPA per dropback. The last time they ranked lower than 16th was way back in 2007. Their deep passing game is non-existent, with Matt Ryan having just seven completions beyond 10 yards and ranking 29th with 5.7 yards per attempt. When you couple this with a lack of talent on defense there is very little to get excited about in Atlanta. I’m not particularly high on this Giants team, but I expect them to win and cover this one.

The pick: Giants -3

Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (+7.5)

The Ravens prevented the nightmare of starting 0-2 with a nail-biting win against the Chiefs last weekend. Whilst there are no givens in the NFL, I fully expect them to move to 2-1 this weekend against Detroit. Whilst the Lions have shown some grit in their losses to the 49ers and Packers, their defense is still a major liability. They rank 32nd in defensive DVOA and are allowing a scarcely believable 0.65 EPA per dropback. Baltimore have no problem putting up the points and I can’t see how Detroit can stick with them.

The pick: Ravens -7.5

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-7)

It didn’t begin in the way many expected, but the Justin Fields era seems to have arrived in Chicago. He showed flashes against the Bengals last weekend when he came in for an injured Andy Dalton, doing enough to ensure they came away with their first win of the season. He has a much tougher test against the Browns this weekend though. The matchup to keep a close eye on is in the trenches. The Browns’ defensive line has averaged 16 pressures per game. This would have been a problem anyway given Chicago’s troubles along the offensive line. When you account for the fact that Justin Fields takes an NFL-high 3.43 seconds on average to get rid of the ball, it is even worse.

The pick: Browns -7

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

I think this game could quietly be one of the most exciting matchups of the weekend. The Bengals have shown flashes of their talent on offense and it sounds like the coaching staff could open up their deep passing game a little more after a disappointing loss to Chicago. I don’t have nearly the same optimism surrounding Pittsburgh’s offense, whilst their defense showed last week that they are vulnerable too. I think the Steelers may edge the win, but five of the Bengals’ six losses with Joe Burrow have been within one score. Three have been by three points or less. They have a habit of keeping things close and I think they do here.

The pick: Bengals +3

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-5)

The big question surrounding this game is who will be quarterbacking the Colts. Carson Wentz left the game against the Rams after somehow spraining both of his ankles. If he can’t get healthy for this game we will see Jacob Eason or Brett Hundley under center. With that eventuality looking increasingly likely, I’m leaning towards Tennessee. They managed to get their offense back on track against Seattle last week and showed why they are still the best team in the AFC South. If Wentz is back I think this could be fairly close, but if he isn’t I don’t see how Indy keep pace with Tannehill and Derrick Henry.

The pick: Titans -5

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)

Who would have thought that after two weeks the Chiefs and Chargers would be sitting third and fourth in the AFC West respectively? The Chargers had a frustrating Week 2 performance against Dallas, but have shown the talent on both sides of the ball that we expected. As for the Chiefs, they still look like their dominant selves, despite a disappointing loss to Baltimore. The triumvirate of Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce are as difficult to contain as ever and the offense leads the NFL in EPA per play. This is a big spread, but I think the Chiefs get a convincing bounceback win.

The pick: Chiefs -6.5

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-2.5)

All aboard the Jameis Winston rollercoaster! After an excellent showing against the Packers in Week 1, we saw the Jameis of old last week against the Panthers. Whilst the wider situation for New Orleans doesn’t excuse his performance, it at least helps explain the rest of the team’s issues against the Panthers. Eight of their coaches were missing due to positive COVID-19. That won’t be the case this week though as they prepare for a trip to Foxborough. New England have looked predictably solid through two games, but I have some concerns about how sustainable their passing game is. I have a feeling the Saints could get the better of them here.

The pick: Saints +2.5

Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)

After last week’s showing against the New York Giants, many are questioning whether this Washington defense can live up to lofty expectations. They have given up 49 points through two games and rank 24th in EPA allowed per play. This is a major drop from last season when they allowed 21.2 points per game and ranked third in EPA. As for Buffalo, wins don’t get any better than their 35-0 bludgeoning of the Miami Dolphins. Perhaps the scariest part of this whole equation is that Josh Allen still doesn’t seem to have hit top gear. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens this weekend and I’m comfortable taking Buffalo despite the big spread.

The pick: Bills -7.5

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders (-4)

The Dolphins will be without Tua Tagovailoa for this one after he suffered a rib injury in their 35-0 loss to the Bills. That lopsided result is not reflective of Miami’s talent, but their offensive line could be a major problem again this weekend. Their quarterbacks were under pressure on a scarcely believable 59.1% of their dropbacks against Buffalo. This isn’t great when preparing to face a Raiders team who lead the NFL in PFF pass rushing grade. Couple this with Derek Carr’s high level of play through two games and I’m taking Vegas as my lock of the week.

The pick: Raiders -4

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-10)

The Jets’ rebuild under Robert Saleh was always going to take time, but things have been disappointing so far. The offensive line has struggled, causing plenty of problems for rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. On the other side of the ball their lack of depth in the secondary has been painfully obvious. Denver on the other hand have been the surprise package of the 2021 season so far in starting 2-0. I think they will take that to 3-0 this weekend, but I am still not comfortable taking Teddy Bridgewater as a double digit favourite.

The pick: Jets +10

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5)

The Seahawks looked fairly comfortable at halftime against the Titans last week but then went on to surrender a 15 point lead. Russell Wilson looked predictably solid, but their inability to run the ball efficiently is a much bigger problem for this offense than it would be for many others. For Minnesota, panic may begin to set in if they fail to win this weekend and fall to 0-3. In fairness, they have kept both of their games very close and have lost by a combined margin of four points. There are questions about their defense, but I think they have enough on the other side of the ball to keep them in this and maybe get the win.

The pick: Vikings +1.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (+1.5)

Every NFL fan will have this game circled in their calendar as the best game of Week 3. Both teams enter 2-0 and look like the cream of the crop in the NFC. The Bucs have shown no signs of rust and easily covered a league-high 12 point spread against Atlanta last weekend. The Rams have also looked excellent with Matthew Stafford and they are the only team who have a top five offense and defense in terms of EPA per play. Their passing attack has been lethal and this could be enough to give them the win over a Bucs team who rank 14th in EPA allowed per dropback this season.

The pick: Rams +1.5

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

This also looks to be one of the best games in Week 3. The Packers will be relieved by their win over the Lions and they looked much more like the team we have seen go 13-3 in each of the last two seasons. As for the 49ers, they sit at 2-0 but could plausibly be called the weakest team in the NFC West. Their offense hasn’t looked as efficient as expected and their defense is struggling due to a lack of talent in the secondary. I think the Packers could surprise a few people and win this one outright.

The pick: Packers +3.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

The NFC East looks like it could be pretty competitive again this year, with the Eagles, Washington, and the Cowboys tied at 1-1 through two weeks. For Philadelphia things have looked promising with Jalen Hurts under center, and their defense has been surprisingly impressive. They have allowed just 23 points so far and rank sixth in EPA allowed per play. As for Dallas, they ran the Bucs close in Week 1 before a narrow win over the Chargers last weekend. I think that the Cowboys have enough to edge this one and I’m taking them to cover too.

The pick: Cowboys -3