Week 13 offers some enticing games, including eight divisional matchups. This season continues to be unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, with six underdogs winning outright last week. There will no doubt be more of the same this weekend. Here are my picks against the spread for every game in Week 13.
2021 Against the spread record: 93-85-1
2021 Straight up record: 114-64-1
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+6.5)
Both of these teams are in desperate need of a win. The Saints started out 5-2 but are now on a four game losing run. It sounds like Sean Payton will start Taysom Hill over Trevor Siemian to try and arrest this decline. For the Cowboys they have won just one of their last four. They are also experiencing a major Covid-19 outbreak, with six players and seven staff members absent, including Mike McCarthy. That is a lot to overcome and whilst I think they will win, I’m not sure they can cover against a talented Saints defense.
The pick: Saints +6.5
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (+7.5)
The Cardinals have remaining remarkably competitive in the absence of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, going 2-1 with Colt McCoy as their starter. Their defense has been the driving force behind this success, ranking third in both yards and points allowed per drive. Chicago’s defense has actually been pretty impressive in recent weeks too, holding each of their last three opponents under 300 yards. The fact that these performances resulted in just one win shows the difference between these two teams. I don’t see how the Bears can stick with the Cardinals if Murray and Hopkins return.
The pick: Cardinals -7.5
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+10)
There is a trend to the performance of this Colts team. Five of their six wins this season have come against teams with losing records. All of their losses have come against teams who were .500 or better. For that reason I have little doubt that they will beat the Texans and expect them to do so comfortably. Houston have struggled badly against the run all season, sitting 25th in rushing DVOA. The last time they met the Colts ran out 31-3 winners with Jonathan Taylor averaging over 10 yards per carry. The Texans were without Tyrod Taylor in that game and whilst I think he’ll keep it marginally more competitive this weekend, the Colts will still cover.
The pick: Colts -10
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
After faltering before their bye, this Bengals team looks to be back to its best. They have won back-to-back games, including the 41-10 thrashing of the Steelers. Their move towards a more run-heavy approach certainly appears to be paying dividends. That isn’t good news from a Chargers perspective. Everyone knows that this defense can’t stop the run and they currently sit 32nd in rushing DVOA. Justin Herbert and the offense should keep things competitive, but I’m not sure that it will be enough to cover the spread.
The pick: Bengals -3
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+7)
These two teams game us a great spectacle when they met in Week 5 and we can only hope for more of the same. The Lions remain winless, but they have been competitive through recent weeks. They haven’t lost by more than three points since Week 8 and their defense has not allowed more than 16 points in the same spell. The Vikings are a better team than their 5-6 record would suggest and I fully expect them to get the win here. That said, all but one of their games have finished within one score. I have a feeling Detroit could beat the spread.
The pick: Lions +7
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-4)
The Giants got the divisional upset over the Eagles last week, but but it wasn’t the most impressive performance. The problems on offense persist despite the departure of Jason Garrett and they were heavily reliant on their defense forcing a handful of turnovers and giving them short fields. As for Miami, this looks far more like the team we were expecting. They are on a four game winning run, with the offense clicking and the defense getting back to their best. Their pass rush has been particularly impressive and that could be a major problem for this Giants offensive line.
The pick: Dolphins -4
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (+7)
I know the Jets got the win last week, but it was hardly convincing. Zach Wilson is yet to look like a player worthy of the No. 2 overall pick and did very little against an eminently beatable Texans defense. The win came down to a stellar defensive performance in the second half, but that was not something we’ve seen very often this season. The defense ranks 32nd in EPA per play and are in the bottom three for points per drive and drive success rate. The Eagles may have lost to the Giants, but their defense looked solid and their running game was as reliable as ever. They are the better team on both sides of the ball and should cover the spread.
The pick: Eagles -7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (+11)
The Bucs got a big win last week against the Colts, but there has been a noticeable decline in recent weeks. They led the NFL in offensive DVOA from Weeks 1-9 but have dropped to sixth since. On defense they rank 10th, with injuries continuing to cause problems. As for the Falcons, they found their feet on offense last week after two terrible showings. A big part of that was the return of Cordarrelle Patterson, who has been the team’s biggest star. I have little doubt that the Bucs will get the win here, but with Patterson back this is a Falcons offense capable of scoring points. I think they can keep it within 11 points.
The pick: Falcons +11
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams (+12.5)
It can’t be often that a team on a three game losing run finds itself as double digit favourites, but that speaks to how Vegas views this Jaguars team. In fairness, they have been underwhelming on both sides of the ball all season. They also managed to score just 14 points on a Falcons defense that had shipped 68 in their two games prior. All that said, I still don’t see nearly enough from the Rams to warrant this kind of spread. Since Week 9 they rank 30th and 25th in offensive and defensive EPA per play respectively. Both marks put them below the Jaguars. They also haven’t covered the spread in five games. I expect them to win, but this is a steep spread given what he have seen in recent weeks.
The pick: Jaguars +12.5
Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
The Raiders win on Thanksgiving puts them at 6-5, tied with the Broncos and Chargers in the AFC West and just one game behind the Chiefs. As for Washington, they seem to have found a route to success with a ball control offense. They have averaged 39 minutes of position through their last three games, winning each of them. Their defense is slowly improving too and they have not allowed more than 300 yards or 21 points in any of their last three outings. I think they might be the better of these two teams and they should get the win.
The pick: Washington +2.5
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)
Baltimore’s ability to find ways to win deserves plenty of credit. They overcame the Browns last weekend despite a four interception performance from Lamar Jackson. They have now somehow won all four games where their quarterback has thrown multiple interceptions. The Steelers haven’t had anywhere near that kind of luck on offense and now seem to be suffering from problems on defense. The return of T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick did little to help last week as they shipped 41 points against the Bengals. The have had real issues stopping the run, and that is never a good thing ahead of a game against Baltimore.
The pick: Ravens -4.5
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3)
The early season crisis for the 49ers seems like a long time ago. They have won four of their last five and appear to have rediscovered their devastating running game. They put up over 200 yards on the ground last week, averaging an impressive 0.1 EPA per rush. This Seahawks team is heading in completely the opposite direction. They have lost six of seven and have eight losses for the first time in the Russell Wilson era. There is no cause for optimism on either side of the ball. I would still take the 49ers at a spread twice the size.
The pick: 49ers -3.5
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
The Chiefs are back to winning ways and are undefeated since Week 8. The defensive turnaround that has been the driving force and they rank fourth in EPA per play during that period. They have also given up just 11.75 points per game. The Broncos have been on a good run themselves, with three wins in their last four. The matchup to watch this weekend is Vic Fangio’s defense against Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have struggled against two-high Fangio-style defenses all year and I expect Denver to limit the ceiling of this offense. If that happens, I can’t see the Chiefs covering this kind of spread.
The pick: Broncos +9.5
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
This has to be the game of the week. The Patriots have been outstanding, with a clinical offense and maybe the best defense in the entire NFL. Since Week 8 they rank fourth and first in offensive and defensive EPA respectively. The Bills are one of the only teams in the NFL who can rival this Patriots defense and they rank second in the NFL in points per drive and success rate this season. The concern stems from this offense. They haven’t been nearly as effective as they were last year and that does not bode well for a game against this New England defense. I don’t think it is a stretch to say that the Patriots have the better offense right now and I think they can beat the spread and win this outright.
The pick: Patriots +2.5